MMO Models: Crowd-Sourcing Economedia
Peter Krapp / UC Irvine
As the game industry seeks revenues beyond sales of shrink-wrapped entertainment software, massively multiplayer online games offer new models—particularly with in-game transactions. This column will compare the approaches of three major players: SONY, Blizzard, and Linden Labs.
Business models for digital culture oscillate between box-office hit and niche product; what models can media studies develop to unfold how this influences both the quality and availability of computer games? Finance draws a distinction between rational expectations that the market naturally finds to a balance: one may realize ‘beta’ in the wisdom of the crowds—and the surmise of reflexive behaviorists that the world is always subject to fluctuating imbalance: one may realize ‘alpha’ in the mass mania of the markets. Media studies is likewise split between those which see crowd-sourcing as a source of progress and transformation, from the printing press to the differentiated scenarios of screen media; and those who warn that the dispersion of our collective attention in the noise of ever larger crowds drowns out everything of value, be it information or entertainment. To mediate between these incompatible positions, this column looks at MMORPG economics, despite the standard disclaimer that in financial history as in media history, the past is no guarantee for the future. Though the insights derived cannot be as formulaic as an alpha or beta deviation, they nonetheless promises some gain for media studies.
As gaming devices compete with networked home computers, manufacturers like Nintendo, Sony, or Microsoft bet on convergence via Wiiware, Playstation Network, Xbox Live, hoping to reach a broader demographic and additional revenue streams beyond the one-time sale of shrink-wrapped software—through subscriptions, advertising, and secondary markets. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 by Activision racked up 1.75 billion minutes of online play in the first six months after publication, and prompted 20 million transactions for additional game content. Since November 2002, Xbox Live has connected more consoles than WiiWare since March 2008 or Playstation Network since May 2006, but the largest number of games is available for the Wii, and Sony has the smallest number of online participants. While both Playstation and Xbox soon granted access to Netflix, Facebook, and Twitter, the Wii added Netflix much later. Beyond subscriptions, game developers have begun to monetize in-game advertising, and some seek to profit from in-game transactions. Industry observers claim that as many as 80% of US Internet users occasionally work or play in synthetic worlds, and estimates for the growth of online entertainment bet on MMOs as a major driver.
World of Warcraft by Activision-Blizzard claims to have over 10 million subscribers, earning parent company Vivendi about a billion dollars in annual revenue; other online role-play games are often free to play rather than subscription-based, making money through in-game markets instead. Nintendo’s MapleStory for the DS Platform, Final Fantasy and DragonQuest from SquareEnix, and Electronic Arts with Ultima Online and Dark Age of Camelot entered into the competition for synthetic worlds with primary and secondary markets for exchange, barter, and trade. By design, auctions and sales offer money-sinks that delicately balance the time-sink that is online play, with alluring opportunities to earn or win gold or loot or points. The division of labor implicit in role-play creates secondary markets, so it does not surprise us to see virtual swords and elixirs, but also entire characters or player accounts up for trade or sale on eBay, IGE, PlayerAuctions, ItemMania, and other marketplaces. I first encountered these a dozen years ago when a neighbor was promoted from software engineer to usability manager with the task to analyze what drove the sales of an inexpensive alternative to Photoshop—it was used quite a bit by hobbyists to design virtual armor, flags, animals, and other in-game items. Some purists feel the purchase and sale of in-game goods that would otherwise be acquired through play degrades the experience. But other players embrace this new frontier and provide in-game services, trade goods, or start virtual real estate companies. Synthetic worlds allow players different styles – meet someone, explore spaces, solve puzzles, conquer and dominate, spy, heal, cast spells, and so forth. Many game developers count on user-generated content to enrich their synthetic worlds, allowing and even encouraging the creation and exchange of items, skins, and even maps. While some players turn virtual goods into real currency (which is certainly not free of virtuality), others dream of a different life through consumption. Economists like Castronova estimate the entire in-game market might be in the billions of dollars annually.1 Some of that activity might be in sweatshops in China that harness cheap labor to level up characters for paying customers who would pay rather than play for gold or loot, weapons or horses, avatars or entire accounts. But this in itself is nothing new – MUDs in the 1980s had barter and trade, and Ultima Online players were already able to use eBay for virtual goods in the 1990s. There are currently three distinct approaches to this phenomenon among the operators of large synthetic worlds: Blizzard bans such behavior in its World of Warcraft, SONY segregates its Everquest servers, and Linden Labs require some real-money trade of players in Second Life. Here we want to observe transaction costs, and speculate what might happen if these companies espoused a different model in regulating the transfer of social, cultural, and economic values among participants.
1: Deutsche Bank
3: Deutsche Bank
5: Sony Online
Please feel free to comment.
- Edward Castronova, Synthetic Worlds: The Business and Culture of Online Games. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press 2005 [↩]
- Nick Ducheneaut & al. (2006). “Building an MMO With Mass Appeal: A Look at Gameplay in World of Warcraft,” Games and Culture 1(4), 281-317. [↩]
- Noah Robischon (2007) “Station Exchange: Year One (White Paper)“, Gamasutra (July 2) [↩]
“Digital purchasing among core gamers has plenty of room to grow,” said Liam Callahan, industry analyst, The NPD Group. “While many core gamers indicate they are purchasing full games and digital add-on content frequently, there are those that stated they have never purchased digital content.”
Sales of new videogame products in U.S. retail stores fell again in February, adding to more than a year of declines ahead of the holiday launch of next-generation game consoles.
Videogame hardware, software and accessories in U.S. retail stores fell 25% to $810 million from $1.09 billion the same time a year prior, according to surveys from market researcher NPD Group.
The precipitous contraction in retail spending has now continued every month since December 2011, setting a sour tone for new game consoles from Sony Corp. (SNE, 6758.TO) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), both of which are expected to arrive in time for the holidays this year.
NPD’s data only look at a section of the industry, however. Sony’s new PlayStation 4, for example, will more heavily lean on technology that delivers games to customers over the Internet–a segment of sales NPD doesn’t include in its monthly tracking figures.
For February, NPD said sales of games over the Internet to devices such as consoles, tablets and smartphones amounted to $319 million. Used games and rentals represented roughly $90 million, NPD said. Together, the two segments represented roughly half of all game spending in the U.S., NPD said.
Sales of videogames themselves fell 27% to $352 million from $484 million a year prior. Liam Callahan, an analyst at NPD, said in a statement that there were the same number of games released in February this year as there were last, “but February 2013 new launches performed worse than last year with unit sales down 30%.”
Electronic Arts Inc.’s (EA) science-fiction shooting drama “Dead Space 3” was the top seller in February, NPD said, followed by Activision Blizzard Inc.’s (ATVI) war simulation shooter, “Call of Duty: Black Ops II.” EA’s post-apocalyptic shooting game “Crysis 3” rounded out the top three games, followed by Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.’s (TTWO) basketball game, “NBA 2k13.”
Worst hit was videogame hardware, a sector where sales fell 36% to $244.2 million from $382.9 million last year. Some of that is likely due to customers waiting for new game consoles. Sony recently said it would be releasing the PlayStation 4, its newest console, during the holiday season this coming fall. Also, people familiar with the matter have said Microsoft’s next-generation console will be released around that time.
Sales of accessories such as headsets, affiliated toys and subscription gift cards, which for many months were able to grow despite contractions in other parts of the industry, also fell. Sales dropped 3% to $213.9 million from $219.7 million a year prior.
This is a lot of data for a short post… Great but I wonder why media scholars don’t correlate sales data with industry scenarios more often, since it is obviously relevant for what we get to see or buy and when and how
@brandonkahler, you may be right that it’s necessary to correlate sales data with industry scenarios, as financial analysts do – but media studies also needs to bring a different perspective, namely how this relates to criticism, to rankings, and to other perceptions and expressions of quality rather than quantity